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How can the modelling of health vulnerabilities for extreme weather events help to shape equitable and climate-resilient urban planning strategies?

Increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves, floods, and water-related events not only cause immediate physical harm but also exacerbate chronic disease, mental health problems, and existing social inequalities. These impacts arise through complex and interconnected pathways linking climate stressors, urban environments, health systems, and social conditions.

Current policies and planning approaches often address these dimensions in isolation, limiting their effectiveness and sometimes producing unintended consequences, such as exclusion or displacement.  

To address these challenges, the project adopts a systems-based and participatory research approach that integrates climate science, public health, and urban planning. Through collaborative modelling with researchers, policymakers, health professionals, and community members, the project maps the causal pathways linking extreme weather events to physical and mental health outcomes. 

Brazil & The Netherlands 

This project is a joint research initiative with the School of Public Health at the University of São Paulo and other Brazilian partners. It will be built around four in-depth urban case studies in the Netherlands and Brazil.  

  • Four case studies in two countries

    Citizen science and geospatial data are used to ground these models in local realities and lived experience. The resulting system models inform scenario analysis, policy design, and the testing of interventions in living labs, enabling the development of context-specific solutions while also generating transferable insights for more equitable and effective climate–health adaptation strategies.  

    In Brazil, research focuses on Jardim Pantanal in São Paulo and Parque das Tribos in Manaus – communities highly exposed to recurrent flooding, extreme heat, and socio-economic vulnerability, where climate impacts intersect with informal urbanisation and limited access to health services. In the Netherlands, the case studies are Nelson Mandelapark in Amsterdam and the municipality of Ede, where increasing heat stress, water-related risks, and spatial inequalities pose growing challenges within comparatively well-resourced governance contexts. 

  • Envisaged impact

    The Urban Climate–Health Nexus project strengthens cities’ capacity to address climate-related health risks in a more integrated and just way. By combining systems modelling, citizen science, and co-creation with communities and policymakers, the project enables targeted interventions that reduce vulnerability to extreme heat and flooding while addressing underlying social inequalities. 

    Its place-based insights inform locally actionable policy, while the transferable modelling framework supports learning and replication across urban contexts. Ultimately, the project contributes to healthier, more climate-resilient cities and to fairer adaptation strategies that better protect those most affected by climate change. 

  • Researchers & partners

    The project is a joint research initiative with the School of Public Health at the University of São Paulo and other Brazilian partners.  

    At SEVEN, the project is led by Reinoud Wiers (developmental psychopathology). Other SEVEN researchers participating in the project are Claudi Bockting (Clinical Psychology in Psychiatry), Vanessa Harris (global health), André Nollkaemper (international law) and Jannes Willems (urban planning). 

  • Funding

    This SEVEN project is funded under the Merian Fund call “Extreme Heat and Water Events: Mitigating the Adverse Health Effects of Climate Change in Cities”, a joint initiative of the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) and the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). 

  • Opportunities for cooperation

    Do you see an opportunity for yourself or your organisation to collaborate on this theme? Please contact Denise Li.